Adapting to the New Alt Season: A Crypto Reality Check

Historically, alt season has typically ended when BTC.D is in the 35%- 40% range. In 2017, BTC.D bottomed at 35% and in 2021 BTC.D bottomed at 40%. Worth noting that BTC.D hit 70% in 2021 before it even started trending down. Right now we are sitting 59%.

I don't think we will have an alt season in the typical sense where you can expect coins to 5-10x left and right. There are simply too many coins now. Instead, we will probably see "sector" outperformance continue, eg. AI, RWA, utility, memes ++ At least for CEX alts, there is much more competition, and the market is way more efficient now.

Sadly we have become incentivized to think short-term instead of long-term. Not so weird since we have gone from 10,000 altcoins in 2021 to 36 million altcoins today. On track to 100 million coins at the end of 2025

I think that what is relevant this cycle is whether people use your product or not. Good products that people use will always be relevant. This is why perp trading DEX'es, gambling/sports betting platforms, borrowing/lending, and sustainable yield platforms always will be around.

In the end, true product market fit is all that matters and for the alts to takeover they will need these 3 things: 

1. Make a product that people want

2. Make a profit delivering this product to people at scale

3. Find, and keep, these people sustainably